Location: Coombs 2229
Alan Hájek studied statistics and mathematics at the University of Melbourne (B.Sc. (Hons). 1982), where he won the Dwight Prize in Statistics. He took an M.A. in philosophy at the University of Western Ontario (1986) and a Ph.D. in philosophy at Princeton University (1993), winning the Porter Ogden Jacobus fellowship, the highest honorific fellowship awarded by the Graduate School. He has taught at the University of Melbourne (1990) and at Caltech (1992-2004), where he received the Associated Students of California Institute of Technology Teaching Award (2004). He has also spent time as a visiting professor at MIT (1995), Auckland University (2000), Singapore Management University (2005), and Sun Yat-Sen University (2007). Hájek joined the Philosophy Program at RSSS, ANU, as Professor of Philosophy in February 2005.
Hájek's research interests include the philosophical foundations of probability and decision theory, epistemology, the philosophy of science, metaphysics, and the philosophy of religion. His paper "What Conditional Probability Could Not Be" won the 2004 American Philosophical Association Article Prize for "the best article published in the previous two years" by a "younger scholar". The Philosopher's Annual selected his "Waging War on Pascal's Wager" as one of the ten best articles in philosophy in 2003.
He is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of the Humanities. He was the keynote speaker at the 2007 Chinese Analytic Philosophy Association conference, Wuhan (picture). He was the President of the Australasian Association of Philosophy in 2009-2010. He received the 2012 Award for Excellence in Supervision, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences. In 2013 he won the ANU-wide Vice-Chancellor's Award for Excellence in Supervision.
Click here for Hájek's CV.
Click here for Hájek's interview with the Canberra Times.
Click here for Hájek's radio interview for Radio National's Encounter show. (Part of a show on gambling, with several guests.)
Click here for a video of Hájek's talk "A Plea for the Improbable" given at the 2011 Singularity Summit.
Click here for a video of Hájek's talk "Staying Regular?" given at the 9th Formal Epistemology Workshop (FEW 2012).
"Philosophical Heuristics and Philosophical Methodology", forethcoming in The Oxford Handbook of Philosophical Methodology, eds. Herman Cappelin, Tamar Gendler, and John Hawthorne, Oxford University Press.
“Heuristics for Philosophical Creativity”, The Philosophy of Creativity, ed. Elliot Samuel Paul and Scott Barry Kaufman, Oxford University Press.
Manuscript in progress: "Staying Regular?"
Monograph in progress: "Most Counterfactuals Are False"
Forthcoming and 2016
- “Creating Heuristics for Philosophical Creativity”, forthcoming in Creativity and Philosophy, eds. Berys Gaut and Matthew Kieran, Oxford University Press.
- “Minkish Dispositions”, forthcoming in Synthese.
- “Philosophical Heuristics and Philosophical Methodology”, forthcoming in The Oxford Handbook of Philosophical Methodology, eds. Herman Cappelin, Tamar Szabó Gendler, and John Hawthorne, Oxford University Press.
- “Deliberation Welcomes Prediction”, forthcoming in Episteme.
- “Hysteresis Hypotheses”, forthcoming in Conditionals, Probability, and Paradox: Themes from the Philosophy of Dorothy Edgington, eds. John Hawthorne and Lee Walters, Oxford University Press.
- “Probability for Everyone – Even Philosophers” (with Christopher Hitchcock), forthcoming in the Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, eds. Alan Hájek and Christopher Hitchcock, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- “Introduction” (with Christopher Hitchcock), forthcoming in the Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, eds. Alan Hájek and Christopher Hitchcock, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- “Making Ado Without Expectations” (with Mark Colyvan), forthcoming in Mind.
- “In Praise of Philosophy”, forthcoming in a joint publication of the Australian Academy of Humanities and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, ed. John Makeham (title TBD).
- “Counterfactual Reasoning, Quantitative: Philosophical Aspects”, major revision, lengthening, and update of my 2002 article in: James D. Wright (editor-in-chief), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2nd edition, Vol. 5. Oxford: Elsevier, pp. 95-98.
- “Pascal’s Ultimate Gamble”, in The Norton Introduction to Philosophy, eds. Gideon Rosen, Alex Byrne, Joshua Cohen, Seana Shiffrin, W. W. Norton.
- “On the Plurality of Lewis’s Triviality Results”, in A Companion to David Lewis, eds. Barry Loewer and Jonathan Schaffer, Blackwell.
“Unexpected Expectations”, Mind 123 (490, April), 533-567.
“Probabilities of Counterfactuals and Counterfactual Probabilities”, Journal of Applied Logic 12 (3), 235-252. (Special volume on conditionals.)
“Declarations of Independence” (with Branden Fitelson), Synthese, 10.1007/s11229-014-0559-2.
“Heuristics for Philosophical Creativity”, in The Philosophy of Creativity, ed. Elliot Samuel Paul and Scott Barry Kaufman, Oxford University Press
“A Chancy ‘Magic Trick’”, in Chance and Temporal Asymmetry, ed. Alastair Wilson, Oxford University Press, 100-111
“Confirmation” (with James M. Joyce), update of 2008 article for the 2nd edition of the Routledge Companion to the Philosophy of Science, eds. Stathis Psillos and Martin Curd, Routledge.
“Saint Peter, Saint Petersburg, and Satan” (with Paul Bartha and John Barker), Synthese, December, DOI 10.1007/s11229-013-0379-9.
“Bayesianism (Recent Uses of)” (with John Cusbert), the Encyclopedia of Philosophy and the Social Sciences, Sage.
- "Is Strict Coherence Strictly Coherent?", Dialectica 66 (3), 411-424, special issue on Bayesian and traditional epistemology.
- "The Fall of Adams' Thesis", Journal of Language, Logic and Information 21 (2), 145-161, special issue on “Interpreting Probability”, eds. Timothy Childers and Ondrej Majer.
- "Blaise and Bayes", Probability in the Philosophy of Religion, ed. Jake Chandler and Victoria Harrison, Oxford University Press.
- "Pascal's Wager", invited contribution to The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/pascal-wager/ (Substantive revision of 2007 article.)
- "Rationality and indeterminate probabilities" (with Michael Smithson), Synthese 187, No. 1, 33-48, 2011 (In a special issue on probability.)
- "Triviality Pursuit", in Topoi 30, 3-15; special issue on probabilities and conditionals, eds. Simone Duca and Hannes Leitgeb, 2011.
- "Conditional Probability", in Philosophy of Statistics, eds. Prasanta Bandhopadhyay and Malcolm Forster, Elsevier, 2011.
- "Bayesian Epistemology", (with Stephan Hartmann), in A Companion to Epistemology, 2nd ed, (eds.) Jonathan Dancy, Ernest Sosa, and Matthias Steup, Blackwell, 2010.
- "Australasian Philosophy of Probability, and Probability in Australasian Philosophy", in Companion to Philosophy in Australasia, eds. Graham Oppy, Nick Trakakis, Lynda Burns, Steve Gardner and Fiona Leigh.
- "Fifteen Arguments Against Hypothetical Frequentism", Erkenntnis (March 2009) 211-235, Reprinted in The Routledge Anthology of Probability, ed. Antony Eagle. Routledge 2009.
- "Two Interpretations of Two Stoic Conditionals", in Logical Analysis and History of Philosophy, 2009.
- Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions, edited by Alan Hájek and Vincent F. Hendricks, New York / London: Automatic Press / VIP, ISBN-10: 87-92130-05-4; ISBN-13: 978-87-92130-05-1.
- "Complex Expectations" (with Harris Nover), Mind 117 (July), 643-664.
The New Dictionary of Scientific Biography, ed. Noretta Koertke, Scribner's.
- "Dutch Book Arguments", in The Oxford Handbook of Rational and Social Choice, ed. Paul Anand, Prasanta Pattanaik, and Clemens Puppe. Oxford University Press. 2008.
- "A Philosopher's Guide to Probability", in Uncertainty: Multi-disciplinary Perspectives on Risk, Earthscan (the Goolabri symposium organized by Gabriele Bammer and Michael Smithson), 2008.
- "Are Miracles Chimerical?", in Oxford Studies in Philosophy of Religion, ed. Jon Kvanvig. [scanned version]
- "Probability - A Philosophical Overview", in Current Issues in the Philosophy of Mathematics From the Perspective of Mathematicians, ed. Bonnie Gold, Mathematical Association of America.
"Arguments For - Or Against - Probabilism?"
The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 59 (December), 793-819.
Also in Degrees of Belief, eds. Franz Huber and Christoph Schmidt-Petri, Springer, 2009. 229-251. [ this version ]
- "Confirmation" (with James M. Joyce), in the Routledge Companion to the Philosophy of Science, eds. Stathis Psillos and Martin Curd, 2008.
- Interview, Epistemology: 5 Questions, eds. Vincent F. Hendricks and Duncan Pritchard, Automatic Press, 2008.
- "Pascal's Wager", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (2008 edition), ed. E. Zalta. (Substantive revision of original 1998 article.)
- Ramsey + Moore = God (with David Chalmers), Analysis 67 (294): 170-172.
"The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too", Synthese 156: 185-215. 2007.
- An older version of the paper, "The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too!" (note the exclamation mark!) is also forthcoming inTruth and Probability, eds. Bryson Brown and Francois Lepage, Kluwer.
- "What Are Degrees of Belief?" (with Lina Eriksson), Studia Logica 86: 185-215 (special issue on formal epistemology), ed. Branden Fitelson, 2007.
- "My Philosophical Position Says "p", and I Don't Believe "p", in Moorean Absurdity: Essays on Content, Context and Their Collision, eds. Mitchell Green and John Williams, Oxford University Press, 2007.
- "Interpretations of Probability", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (2003 edition), ed. E. Zalta.
- Interview on Formal Philosophy, Masses of Formal Philosophy, eds. Vincent F. Hendricks and John Symons, Automatic Press.
- "Perplexing Expectations" (with Harris Nover), Mind 115, July 2006.
- "Chance" (with Carl Hoefer), in the Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2nd edition, ed. Donald Borchert, Detroit: Macmillan Reference USA, 2006.
- "Some Reminiscences on Richard Jeffrey, and Some Reflections on The Logic of Decision", Philosophy of Science, PSA 2006 edition.
- "The Cable Guy Paradox", Analysis, Vol. 65, No. 4, April 2005.
- "Probability" (with Branden Fitelson and Ned Hall), The Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy of Science, eds. Jessica Pfeiffer, Sherri Rausch, and Sahotra Sarkar, Routledge.
- "Scotching Dutch Books?", Philosophical Perspectives 19 (issue on Epistemology), ed. John Hawthorne.
- "Vexing Expectations" (with Harris Nover), Mind, Vol. 113, April 2004, 237-249.
- "Desire Beyond Belief" (with Philip Pettit), Australasian Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 82, March 2004, 77-92.
- Reprinted in Lewisian Themes: the Philosophy of David K. Lewis, eds. Frank Jackson and Graham Priest, Oxford University Press, 2004, 78-93.
- "Probability", the New Dictionary of the History of Ideas, Charles Scribner's Sons, 2004.
- "Waging War On Pascal’s Wager", Philosophical Review, Vol. 113, January 2003, 27–56. Reprinted in The Philosopher’s Annual 2004, ed. Patrick Grim,www.philosophersannual.org.
- "What Conditional Probability Could Not Be", Synthese, Vol. 137, No. 3, December 2003, 273-323.
- "Conditional Probability is the Very Guide of Life", in Probability is the Very Guide of Life: The Philosophical Uses of Chance, eds. Henry Kyburg, Jr. and Mariam Thalos, Open Court. Abridged version in Proceedings of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis 2002.
- "Counterfactual Reasoning—Quantitative (Philosophical Aspects)",International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, Elsevier, 2872-2874.
- "Induction and Probability" (with Ned Hall), in The Blackwell Guide to the Philosophy of Science, eds. Peter Machamer and Michael Silberstein, Blackwell, 149-172.
- "Probability, Logic, and Probability Logic", in The Blackwell Companion to Logic, ed. Lou Goble, Blackwell, 362-384.
- "Crimmins, Gonzales, and Moore" (with Daniel Stoljar), Analysis, Vol. 61, No. 3, 208-213.
“Objecting Vaguely to Pascal's Wager”, Philosophical Studies, Vol. 98 (1), March, 1-16.
“Agnosticism Meets Bayesianism”, Analysis, Vol. 58 No. 3, 199-206.
“David Hume, David Lewis, and Decision Theory” (with Alex Byrne), Mind, Vol. 106, 411-428.
“The Illogic of Pascal's Wager”, Proceedings of the 10th Logica International Symposium, Liblice, ed. T. Childers et al, 239-249, Filosophia, The Institute of Philosophy of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.
“Full Belief and Probability: Comments on van Fraassen”, with William L. Harper, Dialogue (the Canadian Philosophical Review), Vol. 36, No. 1, (Winter), 91-100.
“The Fearless and Moderate Revision: Extending Lewis' Triviality Results”, Proceedings of the 9th Logica International Symposium, Liblice, ed. T. Childers et al, 171-178, Filosophia, The Institute of Philosophy of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.
“ ‘Mises Redux’—Redux: Fifteen Arguments Against Finite Frequentism”, Erkenntnis, Vol. 45, 209-227.
Reprinted in Probability, Dynamics and Causality – Essays in Honor of Richard C. Jeffrey, D. Costantini and M. Galavotti (eds.), Kluwer.
Reprinted in Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings, ed. Antony Eagle, Routledge 2011.
“In Defense of Hume's Balancing of Probabilities in the Miracles Argument”, Southwest Philosophy Review, Vol. 11, Number 1, (January), 111-118.
“Triviality on the Cheap?”, in Probability and Conditionals, ed. Ellery Eells and Brian Skyrms, Cambridge University Press, 113-140.
“The Hypothesis of the Conditional Construal of Conditional Probability”, (with Ned Hall) in Probability and Conditionals, ed. Ellery Eells and Brian Skyrms, Cambridge University Press, 75-111.
“EPR” (with Jeffrey Bub), Foundations of Physics, Vol. 21, Festschrift for Sir Karl Popper, 313-332
“Nuke 'Em Problems”, Analysis Vol. 51, No. 4, 254-264
Translated into Polish as "Zwierciadlo Meduzy", in Filozofia Moralnosci (Philosophy of Morality), Aletheia Foundation Publishing House, Poland 1997.
“Probabilities of Conditionals—Revisited”, Journal of Philosophical Logic Vol. 18, No. 4, 423-428.